2025 NBA Championship Odds

Who has the best chance to win the 2025 NBA championship?

Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics showcased dominance throughout their playoff campaign, validating their status as the NBA’s premier team with just three losses on their path to the championship. They could have potentially gone undefeated at 16-0 if not for unexpected setbacks against the undermanned Miami Heat, a home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, and a significant defeat to the Mavericks by 38 points on the road.

Nevertheless, Boston’s performance was characterized by exceptional two-way basketball, anchored by a star-studded starting lineup that kept the Finals MVP race undecided until Commissioner Adam Silver’s announcement. The team’s depth is underscored by their contractual commitments, notably Jayson Tatum’s impending status as the highest-paid player in NBA history.

The Celtics’ season-long dominance was remarkable, outscoring opponents by an impressive 1,083 points from the season opener to the final game of the Finals. They join an elite group in NBA history as the third team in the 21st century to lose three or fewer games in a single playoff run, alongside the 2017 Warriors and the 2001 Lakers.

Looking ahead, repeating their success will pose challenges, but given their formidable resources, betting against the Celtics would be unwise.

Denver Nuggets

The Western Conference semifinals matchup between Denver and the Minnesota Timberwolves exposed significant weaknesses for the Nuggets. They struggled notably in the frontcourt beyond Nikola Jokic, lacking stability and secondary playmakers who could create their own shots.

Had Denver avoided facing Minnesota, the Finals might have featured a completely different challenger against Boston. Nonetheless, the Nuggets remain a formidable threat to contend for championships, anchored by Jokic, a three-time MVP, and supported by the consistently underrated Jamal Murray. Aaron Gordon provides valuable complementary skills, but Michael Porter Jr.’s playoff performance fell short of expectations.

Denver also faces challenges with its second unit, which lacks depth, but this can potentially be addressed in the upcoming offseason. Despite their second-round elimination, the Nuggets are favored more highly than both the Mavericks and Timberwolves, indicating strong confidence from oddsmakers. The setback in the playoffs is viewed as a minor obstacle, and the team’s response in the following season will be crucial, especially after scrutiny following their 2023 title run against perceived weaker opponents.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder faced a challenge of inexperience in their second-round matchup against eventual finalist Dallas, a hurdle common for youthful teams like theirs on the path to championship contention. Just look at the Celtics’ journey, marked by multiple setbacks before breaking through to silence doubters with a title.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was on the verge of an MVP-caliber season and is poised for continued growth, supported by talents like Jaylen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Lu Dort. With a wealth of draft picks, the front office has ample resources to bolster the roster further, a prospect that’s daunting given Oklahoma City’s top finish in the fiercely competitive Western Conference.

NBA Finals odds over time

NBA 2023-24 Finalists odds

NBA Finals result odds

Explaining NBA Finals Point Spreads and Lines

Betting on the spread allows bettors more flexibility because the outcome isn’t solely determined by which team wins or loses. Instead, it hinges on the point differential shown on the scoreboard. For instance, in Game 1, the Celtics are favored to win by at least 4.5 points, denoted by the minus sign (-) before the 4.5.

If Boston wins over Denver by five points, it would cover the spread, resulting in a winning bet. Conversely, if Boston wins by just four points, the Nuggets would cover as the +4.5-point underdogs, indicated by the plus sign (+) before the 4.5.

Analyzing NBA Finals Moneyline Odds: A Deep Dive

Betting on the moneyline involves choosing the outright winner of a game, without considering the point spread. If your chosen team wins, you win your bet. For instance, if you bet $100 on the Celtics and they win, you get back your initial bet plus $80 in profit.

Championship odds trends

In the past six years, there has been a new NBA champion each season, a feat last seen from 1977 to 1981.

The 2023 Nuggets were notable for winning the championship without facing a No. 1, 2, or 3 seed throughout their playoff run.

Since the Houston Rockets in 1995, no team seeded No. 4 or lower (like their No. 6 seed) has captured the championship.

Among NBA franchises, the Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Charlotte Hornets, and Memphis Grizzlies have yet to reach the NBA Finals.