UFC 316 Predictions
The spotlight turns to Newark as UFC 316 brings fans a high-stakes night of action with championship gold and divisional rankings on the line. Headlining the event is the anticipated rematch Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2, a clash of relentless grappling pressure and pinpoint striking.
The main card also features pivotal bouts, including Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena, a contest that could determine the next welterweight title challenger. With rising stars, stylistic clashes, and storylines brewing, UFC 316 promises to be one of the most consequential events of the year—both inside the Octagon and across the UFC rankings.
UFC 316 Event Overview
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 is set to take place at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, delivering a headline rematch fans have been demanding. On this action-packed card, the Bantamweight Championship is on the line as Merab Dvalishvili challenges Sean O’Malley, who narrowly edged out their first meeting.
Alongside this anticipated title clash, fans will witness the pivotal Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena welterweight showdown—another matchup with direct title implications. With a mix of high-stakes drama and stylistic diversity, UFC 316 predictions promises a night of calculated violence, surging contenders, and explosive finishes.
Fighter Form and Statistics
Below is a comparison of key physical and statistical attributes between the main event fighters:
| Attribute | Merab Dvalishvili | Sean O’Malley |
| Nickname | The Machine | Sugar |
| Record (W-L-D) | 17-4-0 | 18-1-0 (1 NC) |
| Height | 5’6″ (168 cm) | 5’11” (180 cm) |
| Weight | 135 lbs (61 kg) | 135 lbs (61 kg) |
| Reach | 68 inches (173 cm) | 72 inches (183 cm) |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Country | Georgia | USA |
| Strikes Landed/Min | 4.46 | 7.29 |
| Takedowns/15 min | 6.55 | 0.79 |
| UFC Debut | 2017 | 2017 |
| Last 5 Fights | 5 Wins | 4 Wins, 1 NC |
Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili, known as The Machine, embodies relentless pressure. The Georgian fighter blends elite cardio with a wrestling-heavy approach, making him one of the most exhausting opponents in the bantamweight division. His ability to push the pace, shoot takedowns from unorthodox angles, and chain wrestle for 15 to 25 minutes breaks even the toughest contenders.
He is currently riding a long win streak, including dominant victories over Petr Yan and José Aldo. Dvalishvili’s striking is functional, aimed at setting up clinch entries or level changes. While his finishing rate is modest, his control time and volume make him a nightmare in any five-round fight.
O’Malley 2
Sean O’Malley, or Sugar, offers a stark contrast in style. Tall, rangy, and creative, O’Malley uses footwork and precision striking to pick opponents apart from distance. His KO win over Aljamain Sterling to claim the title proved that his style isn’t just flashy—it’s lethal when timed right.
He fights from both stances, utilizes feints, and has developed a powerful right hand. His biggest weakness, however, lies in his takedown defense and ability to withstand pressure over multiple rounds. In their first clash, he narrowly escaped the grind of Dvalishvili. This rematch underlines the stylistic battle: volume and pace versus timing and precision.
Main Event Breakdown
Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 – Preview & Prediction
The Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2 main event brings contrasting archetypes to center stage. Dvalishvili’s game plan is predictable but difficult to stop. He’ll aim to push the pace, close the distance, and rack up control time. O’Malley will need to maintain distance, circle out of corners, and land damaging counters to deter the takedown onslaught.
Statistically, Dvalishvili has the edge in cardio and takedown frequency, while O’Malley holds superiority in striking accuracy and knockout power. The key variable is whether O’Malley can maintain the range long enough to accumulate damage and score rounds.
Prediction: If Dvalishvili can chain his takedowns and avoid O’Malley’s early power shots, he likely grinds out a decision. However, O’Malley’s timing could find a finish in the later rounds. Slight edge goes to Dvalishvili via split decision.
UFC 316 Fight Card Overview
Main Card Highlights (ESPN+ PPV)
UFC 316 is headlined by a bantamweight title rematch as reigning champion Merab Dvalishvili takes on striking sensation Sean O’Malley in a highly anticipated showdown. Former women’s bantamweight champ Julianna Peña returns to action to face Olympic judoka Kayla Harrison in a compelling co-main event. Marlon Vera squares off with Mario Bautista in a crucial matchup for the division, while heavyweight sluggers Serghei “Polar Bear” Spivac and Shamil Gaziev promise fireworks. Flyweight contenders Bruno Gustavo da Silva and Joshua Van also battle it out in what could be a show-stealer.
Preliminary Card (ESPN / ESPN+ / Disney+)
The prelims offer plenty of intrigue, featuring a hard-hitting light heavyweight contest between Johnny Walker and Azamat Murzakanov. In the middleweight division, veterans Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer go head-to-head. Ariane da Silva meets China’s Wang Cong in a competitive flyweight tilt to round out the early action.
Top Betting Markets and Tips
UFC 316 offers a wide range of betting opportunities, with the main event between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley leading the action. One of the most popular markets is the Moneyline, where Dvalishvili enters as a slight favorite due to his relentless pace and grappling pressure. However, O’Malley’s knockout ability keeps the underdog bet attractive for punters seeking value.
The Method of Victory market is also key—Dvalishvili by decision is a top pick, given his cardio and control, while O’Malley by KO/TKO presents high-reward potential if he can keep the fight standing.
In the Round Betting market, expect value in later rounds, particularly rounds 4 or 5, where Dvalishvili tends to dominate through accumulation. Parlays featuring fighters like Kayla Harrison or Marlon Vera can also add value to your betslip, especially if you combine them with Over/Under rounds markets.
Tip: Watch for live betting shifts during the co-main event—Julianna Peña’s veteran savvy could flip momentum if the fight goes beyond the first round.
Most Likely Finishes
Props and Round Betting Value
In terms of likely finishes, Jack Della Maddalena is a prime candidate. His body shots and compact hooks make him a dangerous finisher, especially in rounds 2 and 3. Bettors can find excellent value in round 2 KO props and fight won by KO/TKO markets.
High-value props:
- O’Malley to win in Round 3
Sean O’Malley’s precision striking tends to sharpen as his opponents begin to fade, especially in the later rounds. If he can survive Dvalishvili’s early pressure and maintain range, Round 3 presents a prime opportunity for a counter-finish as Dvalishvili slows.
- Della Maddalena by KO Round 2
Jack Della Maddalena thrives on reading opponents in the opening frame and ramping up pressure in the second. With his devastating body shots and compact power combinations, the second round is often where he finds his rhythm and finishes the job.
- Roman Kopylov via KO
Kopylov’s clean boxing and knockout power make him a constant threat, especially against grapplers who struggle to close the distance. If he can keep the fight standing, his timing and counter-punching make a KO not just likely—but probable.
Storylines and Rivalries to Watch
This card is rich in narrative. The O’Malley vs Dvalishvili 2 rematch is rooted in strategic evolution. Dvalishvili feels overlooked, while O’Malley seeks to silence critics who question his ground defense. Meanwhile, the Belal Muhammad vs jack Della Maddalena pairing represents old-school grind versus new-gen killer.
Other narratives:
- Belal’s path to a title shot after being the division’s most avoided contender.
Belal Muhammad has quietly built one of the most consistent résumés in the welterweight division, compiling an impressive unbeaten streak while facing top-level competition. Despite his dominance, he has often been passed over for title shots, making UFC 316 a potential turning point in his long-overdue championship campaign. - Jack Della Maddalena’s rise from Contender Series to elite status.
Jack Della Maddalena burst onto the UFC scene with crisp boxing and clinical finishes, quickly evolving from a promising prospect to a dangerous contender. His meteoric rise through the welterweight ranks has drawn comparisons to past champions, and a win at UFC 316 could propel him directly into title conversations. - Tabatha Ricci’s bid to crack the Top 10.
Known for her grappling prowess and relentless pressure, Tabatha Ricci has steadily climbed the strawweight ladder with smart, technical performances. A statement win on this card could earn her a place among the division’s elite and set up a marquee matchup later in the year.
Predicted Outcomes and Upsets
Potential upsets lie in the stylistic clashes. Belal Muhammad, while a slight favorite, could be stunned by Della Maddalena’s precision. A close decision or late TKO isn’t off the table. Additionally, Uros Medic is a live underdog with one-shot power.
Upset picks:
- Jack Della Maddalena via TKO
Though Belal Muhammad is known for his durability and elite fight IQ, Jack Della Maddalena’s precision striking and body attacks make him a live underdog with explosive finishing potential. If the Australian can cut off Belal’s movement and land clean shots to the midsection, a late-round TKO could shock the welterweight division. - Carlos Hernandez submission win
Often underestimated due to his quiet demeanor, Carlos Hernandez has slick grappling that could catch Malcolm Gordon off guard in scrambles. If the fight hits the mat early, Hernandez’s transitions and back control offer a clear path to a surprise submission victory. - Uros Medic KO in Round 1
Known for his first-round chaos, Uros Medic brings wild power and aggression that overwhelms opponents before they can settle into rhythm. If he lands clean in the opening minutes, a sudden knockout could upend the lightweight pecking order.
Post-Fight Impact on UFC Divisions
The results of UFC 316 will ripple across the bantamweight and welterweight divisions. A Dvalishvili win would likely set up a rematch with Cory Sandhagen or a bout with Umar Nurmagomedov. An O’Malley victory, especially via KO, further cements him as a crossover star.
In the co-main spotlight, the winner of Belal Muhammad vs jack Della Magdalena likely earns a crack at the welterweight belt, especially with Leon Edwards and Colby Covington on uncertain timelines.
Concluding Thoughts on UFC 316 Predictions
From the compelling Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2 tickets flying off shelves to the brewing tension in Belal muhammad vs jack della maddalena odds, UFC 316 presents one of the most dynamic cards of the year. Its mixture of stylistic variety, rising stars, and divisional relevance offers both entertainment and strategic intrigue. Expect a night of surprise outcomes, title implications, and dramatic momentum shifts across divisions.
