Ballon d’Or 2024 Power Rankings

The Ballon d’Or, widely regarded as football’s most prestigious individual accolade, draws immense global interest each year as France Football honors the world’s best player. The selection process is often turbulent, yielding controversial outcomes. Yet, winning this award elevates a player’s profile significantly, as it is determined by votes from journalists and experts worldwide.

The recent history of the Ballon d’Or has been dominated by two of the sport’s all-time greats. Since 2008, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have claimed nearly every trophy, with only two exceptions. However, with both players now competing in leagues outside of Europe, where the prestige may be lower, they are unlikely to contend for this year’s award.

This shift opens the door for a new generation of football stars to make their mark. The 2024 Ballon d’Or winner will have a golden opportunity to cement their place among the sport’s elite. With the club season concluded and a pivotal summer of international football ahead, The Sporting News provides an insightful look into the leading contenders and their chances of capturing this coveted prize.

Who will win the 2024 Ballon d’Or?

Here are some of the frontrunners for the 2024 men’s Ballon d’Or. The Sporting News will continually update this list until the award ceremony.

Vinicius Jr — Real Madrid

Vinicius Jr. has risen to prominence in recent years, becoming a well-known figure in football. Despite facing incidents of racial abuse in Spain, the Brazilian continues to shine brightly each season.

Amidst stiff competition within Real Madrid’s talented squad, Vinicius stands out as a key attacking force for Europe’s most successful club. His impact was pivotal in the Champions League final, where he scored his 24th goal of the season to secure a 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund, reminiscent of his decisive goal against Liverpool in a previous final.

However, Vinicius still faces challenges on the international stage. Despite earning 34 caps for Brazil, he has only scored five goals. Brazil’s recent disappointment at the 2024 Copa America further underscores the hurdles he faces in international competitions. While currently a frontrunner for prestigious awards, a lackluster performance in the United States may have dented his prospects.

Jude Bellingham — Real Madrid

Jude Bellingham has quickly made his mark at Real Madrid, achieving more in his debut season than any newcomer since Cristiano Ronaldo. Despite Ronaldo’s tenure, Bellingham secured a Champions League victory in his first Madrid season, notably against former club Borussia Dortmund.

Renowned as a generational talent, Bellingham initially excelled in a deeper role at his previous club in Germany before Carlo Ancelotti transformed him into a No. 10—a move initially questioned but vindicated by his impressive tally of 23 goals and 13 assists across all competitions this season.

Bellingham’s impact extended to the international stage, notably with a crucial injury-time overhead kick at Euro 2024 that kept England in the tournament. If he clinches the award, he will miss becoming the youngest-ever recipient by just a few days in October.

Kylian Mbappe — PSG

Kylian Mbappe, widely regarded as one of the top players globally, faces challenges despite his immense popularity. Following a lackluster conclusion to his PSG career, Mbappe struggled notably in the Champions League against Borussia Dortmund, overshadowed by teammates like Jadon Sancho and Ousmane Dembele.

Since the start of 2024, Mbappe’s form has been inconsistent. While he scored 23 of his 44 club goals after January 1, many came in less crucial matches, such as eight goals in the Coupe de France, where he faltered in the final against Lyon despite PSG’s narrow 2-1 win. His performance in Ligue 1 included a hat-trick against Montpellier and a brace against Lorient, but he was sidelined against tough opponents like Lille and Lyon, failing to score against Monaco, Reims, and a strong Brest side. Most damaging were his underwhelming displays in crucial Champions League matches.

Mbappe’s hopes for the Ballon d’Or in 2024 were pinned on a strong showing at the Euros, but France’s semifinal exit saw him struggle to make a significant impact.

Harry Kane — Bayern Munich

Harry Kane had a prolific debut season at Bayern Munich, netting an impressive 44 goals in 45 games across all competitions. Despite his scoring prowess, his contributions often didn’t align with Ballon d’Or-worthy moments. Bayern’s trophy drought, including a failure to secure any silverware, added to the narrative that Kane may be plagued by bad luck.

His sole goal against eventual league champions Bayer Leverkusen and a penalty goal in the Champions League semifinals versus Real Madrid were highlights amidst criticisms. At Euro 2024, Kane managed to score three goals, sharing the Golden Boot with five others, yet his overall performance was overshadowed by players like Jude Bellingham, making his Ballon d’Or prospects a daunting challenge.

Florian Wirtz — Bayer Leverkusen

Florian Wirtz had a standout season for Bayer Leverkusen, guiding them to the brink of an historic unbeaten campaign in Germany. Under the guidance of Xabi Alonso, Leverkusen clinched a memorable domestic double, fueled by Wirtz’s brilliance in midfield. Despite returning from an ACL injury, the 21-year-old playmaker excelled in the No. 10 role, scoring 18 goals and providing 20 assists throughout the season. His dynamic play and consistency have positioned him as a key figure in Germany’s national team, particularly as they prepare to host the European Championship, where he is a strong contender for the Golden Ball award.

However, Wirtz faces challenges on his path to global recognition. Playing for Leverkusen, despite their notable achievements, limits his exposure compared to players at larger clubs. Additionally, Leverkusen’s defeat in the Europa League final tarnished their otherwise stellar season, as Atalanta stifled their attack and dashed hopes of an unbeaten treble. These factors, while unfortunate, may hinder Wirtz’s chances of gaining the spotlight needed for major individual awards like the Ballon d’Or.

Phil Foden — Man City

Phil Foden played a pivotal role in Manchester City’s historic achievement of clinching a fourth consecutive Premier League title, a feat unprecedented in English football history. His outstanding performance earned him the FWA Footballer of the Year award, with impressive stats of 27 goals and 12 assists across all competitions.

However, similar to Florian Wirtz, Foden faces challenges that might unfairly impact his recognition. Despite City’s dominant league triumph, their disappointments in the Champions League and domestic cup competitions this season contrast sharply with their historic treble the previous year. This disparity can influence how Foden’s achievements are perceived.

Additionally, Foden competes with a constellation of star players within his own squad. Despite Erling Haaland having a quieter season by his standards, he still secured the Premier League Golden Boot. Meanwhile, the individual brilliance of players like Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne continues to attract headlines, although De Bruyne’s form appears to be fluctuating. As City’s lineup evolves, Foden’s role and prominence within the team are expected to grow, positioning him as a regular contender for top individual honors in the years to come.

Lionel Messi — Inter Miami

Lionel Messi, the record-holder with eight Ballon d’Or awards, continues to shine even in MLS with Inter Miami. At 36, he remains a formidable force, competing at the top of the league in goals and assists despite managing his fitness carefully due to various health concerns.

Yet, claiming a ninth Ballon d’Or presents a formidable challenge for Messi. While the award opened to players from any club worldwide in 2007, the perception of MLS as a lower-tier league compared to Europe’s top competitions likely diminishes his prospects, despite potentially leading Argentina to another Copa America triumph.

While Messi did break new ground as the first non-European club player to win the Ballon d’Or last year, his major achievements, like the 2022 World Cup victory, occurred before joining Inter Miami. While he could theoretically become the first to win while playing entirely outside of European club football, achieving this feat seems increasingly improbable even for someone of Messi’s legendary stature.

Predicting the Winner of the 2024 Men’s Ballon d’Or: Who Will Take Home the Award?

The awards often favor international football over club performances. With Euro 2024 and the Copa America still ahead, these tournaments will heavily influence the Ballon d’Or outcome.

Vinicius’ disappointing Copa America performance significantly harms his chances. Similarly, Messi hasn’t shone, making their Ballon d’Or prospects unlikely for 2024.

In Euro 2024, England reaching the final makes it challenging to decide who between Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham has had a greater impact. Despite England’s heartbreak in the final, Bellingham’s strong club campaign positions him as a leading contender.